Poll Musings
I read a poll this morning at the American Research Group site, and I started thinking about data in general and people in particular. For example, who has land lines at home? Well, lots of people, but not as many as used to. I know quite a few families at my kid’s school who have no land lines; their families all keep in touch by cell phone. Polls don’t call cell phones, as a rule. (I think there’s some rule in place that make it hard for solicitors to waste your minutes.) Lower income folks tend to have cells over land lines, or they go without completely. Cells are more convenient, Go-Phones are cheap, and if you more around, your number goes with you. Seniors have land lines. They stay at home more, and need to be able to call for assistance. I’m not saying that seniors don’t have cell phones, many do, but a significant number of seniors, especially those who are homebound, do not.
Some pollsters, like Zogby, solicit opinion via the internet. I occasionally get tapped for a Zogby poll. I’d like to say that that’s the more reliable poll, but really, it’s as flawed as land line polling, because the number of seniors tapped is not in proportion to the number of seniors voting.
Then there’s the question of phrasing, which is a minefield in poll reliability, since typically EVERYBODY has an agenda. I mean, I don’t think I could parse questions that were completely unbiased, since the baseline I’m drawing from reflects my innate perceptions of society, government, and an individual’s responsibilities within that framework.
Take this question: Do you think the government should help the poor? For one thing, it’s too broad. Which poor? All of them? Some of them? Who chooses? A yes or a no to such a broad statement tells the pollster nothing really, and it actually acts as a dividing force to a conservative or liberal, who, if the question was parsed this way: Do you think the government has a role in caring for people unable to care for themselves? might have a far different reaction from either group.
When II see a poll that says Hillary has the nomination locked up, I wonder, with whom? Indiana seniors and stay-at-home moms? With internet users across 16 states? It’s bolstering to the Hillary camp, but out here in real America, where busy people work and raise families and care for elderly parents and eye their retirements, does it really tell the whole story?
I think not.
Obama has raised some real cash from individuals. At this juncture, I take more stock in that than any poll, because when a citizen makes a $20 campaign donation, that’s 4 gallons of milk or half a tank of gas. This is not excess company profit that can be written off as R&D or some such nonsense, it’s a doctor co-pay or fresh fruit for a week. It’s not jaded, it’s hopeful. Because of that, it carries more weight with me. Edwards is raising cash from regular folks too, albeit not as much as Obama. Count these campaigns out at your peril. There is a lot of non-polled America out there who are digging deep for these two. Plus, when you give your hard earned cash to support an ideal, you tend to go vote.
Democrats have a pretty clear choice this primary. Old school, questionable scource and corporate funded Hillary, or citizen fueled choices that feel like a departure from the past 30 years. I’ve been there (literally, I’ve been a registered Dem since 1980) and done that. I’m looking for representation which sees me as something beyond a stepping stone. I want somebody who sees national pride as a team effort – a team of millions. There are lots of voters who feel the same way.
Despite what the “polls” say, I don’t think Hillary can deliver.
September 14th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
Many of these reasons that polls might be inaccurate were brought up by conservatives in 06 in an effort to deny the polls showing Dems winning the house and senate. Cell phones, people at home etc. The polls still turned out to be accurate as the results came in. It is amazing how the polls tend to be pretty close with such a small sample of people. I think it is probably true that HIllary has the nomination locked up unless some major event turns the tide. I also think it is true that if nominated chances are slightly better than 50/50 she will win. The only GOP contender I think can give her a run is Rudy and I think he will win the GOP nod. I believe we will be looking a close general election (probably 51%-49%) if all things stay relatively static to today news wise. A major event could turn things on a dime though.